Events change the distribution
Inflation data, employment reports, central-bank decisions and earnings can create discontinuous moves. Implied volatility may rise before the event and collapse afterward even when the underlying moves sharply.
Macro and company events differ
Macro shocks affect discount rates, correlations and broad risk appetite. Earnings combine company-specific expectations, guidance and positioning. The research uses a shared event framework while preserving these distinct transmission channels.
Avoiding false precision
Consensus estimates and implied moves are reference distributions, not promises. Scenario bands, sensitivity analysis and post-event review are preferred to a single point forecast.
Research method
- Build a dated event map and distinguish known timing from uncertain timing.
- Measure pre-event implied volatility, expected move, skew, liquidity and cross-asset sensitivity.
- Compare base, upside, downside and gap scenarios with explicit loss boundaries.
- After the event, separate price surprise, volatility repricing and execution effects.
Boundaries and limitations
Unexpected headlines, revisions and policy communication can dominate scheduled data. Historical event responses are small samples and are sensitive to the surrounding market regime.
Research takeaway
Event research is strongest when it treats timing as known but direction and magnitude as uncertain, and when the risk boundary survives a discontinuous move.
Related research
Research and technology implementation only. This is not financial, investment, or trading advice.